Atlanta’s Strongest Cold Front so far this Season by Halloween Weekend

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 – There are indications that the first freeze of the season may occur in about 10 days from now (around Halloween/Nov 1/2/3).  Stay tuned for future updates.

Update #1 – Thursday, October 23, 2014 

***Strongest cold front so far this season one week from tomorrow (Halloween) followed by the first freeze***

  • I still expect the first freeze of the season, with lows in the 20s over much of the area (and afternoon high temperatures only in the 40s), next weekend (Oct 31- Nov 2)
  • With my first post about this yesterday, I have given you 8 days to prepare. If you and your family will be outside on Halloween night, I would plan to dress warmly.
  • I will refine the timing of the cold front and tweak temperatures with future data, as necessary.
Update #2 – Saturday, October 25, 2014

Here are my projected low temperatures for next Saturday night (Nov 1):

forecast1

Forecast low temperatures for Saturday night (November 1), issued Saturday, October 25.

Update #3 – Tuesday, October 28, 2014

***Strongest Cold Front So Far This Season Still Expected Friday***

  • The front will pass through during the afternoon on Friday
  • If you have evening Halloween plans, temperatures will be in the 40s
  • Temperatures falling to freezing in most suburbs Friday night
  • High temperature on Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s
  • Freeze again Saturday night (especially suburbs)
  • Prepare sensitive vegetation for the first freeze of the season
forecast2

Weekend temperature forecast issued Tuesday, October 28.

Update #4 – Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Forecast update: Here are some highlights:

  • I am lowering my forecast highs for Saturday down to the 40s. I do not expect temperatures in Atlanta to rise above the 40s at all on Saturday. This has been a possibility that I’ve been mentioning since last Wednesday.
  • There will be no changes to my low temperature forecast. Around freezing Friday night, upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday night.
  • Saturday will also be quite windy, with north winds of 20 to 30 mph.
  • The mountains of TN/NC and possibly extreme northern Georgia may see some light snow Friday night/Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories issued in TN/NC by Friday.
  • I also wouldn’t be surprised to see frost/freeze advisories issued for much of northern Georgia as we approach the weekend.
forecast3

Updated high-temperature forecast for Saturday, November 1, along with light snow accumulations in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia. Issued Wednesday, October 29.

Update #5 – Thursday, October 30, 2014

***Strongest cold front so far this season is moving south into the Northern Plains and will move into Atlanta tomorrow evening***

  • Take final precautions to protect sensitive vegetation from a freeze.
  • I still expect the cold front to move through tomorrow evening (Friday evening), with temperatures falling through the 40s after 7-8 pm (of course soonest in the northwest counties) Behind the front, the wind will increase to 20-30 mph (gusts to 40 mph).
  • Strong winds will continue on Saturday Dress in layers for trick-or-treating, especially if you will be out past 8 pm.
  • Temperatures falling into the lower 30s before sunrise Saturday (a few locations west and north of Atlanta may fall into the upper 20s). With the wind, I expect a wind chill in the teens Saturday morning (especially before 10 am).
  • High temperature on Saturday in the mid 40s (wind chill in the 30s at times).
  • Freeze again Saturday night (especially in the suburbs).
  • Light snow possible Friday night/Saturday in extreme northeast Georgia. Heavier snow in the mountains of NC/TN/VA where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.
  • The official record low for Saturday in Atlanta is 30º set in 1993. Some locations will fall below that.
  • I believe a Freeze Watch will eventually be needed for much of the area, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an initial Freeze Watch issued for areas northeast of Atlanta at some point today. Any watches that are issued may be expanded southward and upgraded tomorrow. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a Winter Weather Advisory issued at some point for extreme northeast Georgia (for the light snow that is possible tomorrow night/Saturday).

 

Update #6 – Thursday, October 30, 2014

New data are coming in and they reveal no changes to the forecast. The only thing of interest is a disturbance moving southeast behind the cold front early Saturday morning that may generate light snow northeast of Atlanta… especially north of Gainesville. I’ve already discussed this in previous forecasts. However, I can’t rule out a few snow flurries in the Atlanta metro, flying around in the brisk northwest wind. The atmosphere will be cold enough for ice crystal growth; and in this pattern, the terrain and forcing from the disturbance, can trigger snow flurries. This is more of a novelty than anything, considering that Saturday is only November 1. Temperatures will fall to around freezing after 4 am Saturday in the Atlanta metro. High temperatures Saturday afternoon only in the mid 40s. I will post a final update or two tomorrow (Friday) before the cold front moves through.

See the next post for further information.