Rain and Colder Temperatures on the Way for D/FW

Special Update (Sunday 2/15 8:00 pm)
***Freezing Rain Possible Over Western Parts of North Texas***
***West of a line from Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth***

The strong cold front will move through North Texas tonight as predicted in my previous forecasts. Behind the front, temperatures will fall rapidly into the 30s. As of 8 pm, it’s currently in the mid 60s here in the metroplex, and temperatures should hold steady between now and midnight. As the front passes, the temperature will drop dramatically, as much as 20 degrees within the first hour after frontal passage. When the cold front moved through Graham this evening, the temperature fell from 61º to 41º in just one hour (between 6:10 and 7:10), and as of 8 pm, Graham is down to 38º. I believe the front will move through Denton/Tarrant Counties around midnight, and through Collin/Dallas Counties by 2 am.

Rain is developing and will continue to increase in coverage overnight. Rainfall may become heavy at times late tonight/tomorrow morning, particularly from the metroplex eastward. Up to 1 inch of rain is possible here in D/FW by noon tomorrow.

I will be monitoring the freezing line very closely. For the past few days, I have been forecasting a low tonight of 33º for DFW Airport, and mid 30s for Dallas. Clearly, forecasting rain at 33º is a close call and this is a very tough forecast. For now, I am keeping the freezing rain confined to areas north and west of a Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth to Abilene line (my best estimate for where the freezing line will be by 6 am).  I do not expect freezing rain in Dallas or Collin Counties at this time.

I will continue to monitor the data and I will post updates, as necessary. Meanwhile, put those flip flops away and get out the scarves. I do not expect temperatures to rise out of the 30s at all tomorrow (Monday). Warming trend begins on Tuesday.


Previous Forecast Update:

Get out and enjoy the warm, springlike weather on Saturday, because overcast, rain, and colder temperatures are on the way for North Texas.  As always, I will update the forecast, as necessary, with future data.

Quick Forecast Summary:
  • Saturday:  Sunshine.  High 77º to 80º.
  • Sunday: Overcast. Showers developing. High in the lower 70s.
  • Sunday Night: Rain developing.  Low in the lower 30s.
  • Monday: Overcast. Periods of rain early.  High in the upper 30s.
  • Monday Night:  Overcast… a few light showers.  Lower 30s.
  • Tuesday: Very light rain possible early, then clearing. High in the upper 40s to near 50º.
  • Extended:  Warming trend.

Forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth (D/FW Metroplex) February 14 through February 20, 2015