Remembering the May 21-26, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

From May 21st to May 26th, 2011, destructive tornadoes tore through the Great Plains, impacting thousands of people and leaving billions of dollars in damage in its wake. During this time period, there were 241 total tornadoes, including two EF-5, three EF-4, eight EF-3, thirty-one EF-2, eighty-six EF-1, and one hundred [and] ten EF-0 tornadoes. […]

May 8th and 9th Central Plains Storm Chases

A multi-day dryline setup was in place across the central Plains on Sunday, May 8th; and Monday, May 9th, respectively. Observed conditions from radiosonde, or weather balloon, launches, indicated an environment conducive for widespread severe thunderstorms was starting to filter into the central Kansas and central Oklahoma region. Important to any storm chase is to […]

Dry line convergence & thunderstorm squall line formation

This phenomenon is NOT unusual, but it doesn’t always happen.  Today, the dry line and the resulting squall-line were perfectly aligned.  The data presented a teaching moment that I couldn’t pass up.  At the end of the animation, I zoom in so you can see the wind barbs pointing toward the dry line. The air […]

9 am Tuesday 4/26 partial surface analysis

Update on thunderstorm potential for tonight (Tuesday 4/26)

The Result [Tuesday 4/26 8:17 pm] ➡︎ NOTE: Read the original update from Monday 4/25. ***Quasi-Linear Convective System Has Evolved as Expected*** ***Moving toward DFW with winds of 65+ mph*** Winds of 65+ mph detected within the bowing segments… These will arrive in the metroplex over the next two hours… Some wind damage/power outages possible… […]

Forecast sounding for Fort Worth valid 7pm CDT April 26, 2016

DFW: Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday Evening 4/26

I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of […]

Live stream video from storm chasers

Storm Chasers Broadcasting Live – Watch Now!

Future Radar Storm Chasers Live Storm Reports Rainfall Totals Lightning During periods of severe weather, storm chasers tend to converge on the predicted region, devise their strategy, and hit the road in pursuit of convective development unmatched in variety and intensity anywhere in the world. The United States is home to the most spectacular supercells, […]

The Coldwater, Kansas, Supercell of March 7, 2016

On Monday, March 7th, 2016, a spectacular supercell formed in far northwestern Oklahoma and entered southern Kansas. A supercell is a thunderstorm that rotates. Conditions on Monday were favorable for a couple of supercells to initiate off the dryline in far western Oklahoma, and into western Kansas. However, given weak convergence along the dryline and meager […]

Snow depth & percent coverage maps

Our high-resolution snow depth maps are updated several times a day and include the United States and much of Canada. ● Today’s Snow Cover Stats ● Interactive Map ● N. Hemisphere Sea Ice Anomaly Current Snow Cover on Google Maps (High-Res)         Return to the top Return to the top Today’s Snow-Cover […]

A few thoughts on forecast techniques & forecast variance

Friday 2/12… For the sake of conversation, I wanted to share some thoughts about forecast variance (i.e., the tendency for forecasts to vary from one meteorologist to another), forecast advancements, and forecast techniques. It goes without saying that atmospheric prediction is *extremely* difficult and time consuming. During an active pattern, a forecast for a 36-hour […]

Light snow for Atlanta early next week (Feb 8-9)

Final Update [Tuesday, February 9, 2016] Forecast Verification  [Previous Forecasts Further Down the Page]     Forecast Update #2 for Atlanta – Posted Friday 2/5/16 ***No Forecast Changes*** ***Light snow Monday night/Tuesday*** ***Some light accumulations possible*** ◙ A strong cold front will bring drastic temperature changes to Georgia Monday night… ◙ To get caught up […]

How Many Days Until Spring 2018?

The spring (vernal) equinox will occur on Monday, March 20, 2018 at 16:15 UTC. In the United States, this translates to 12:15 pm EST, 11:15 am CST, 10:15 am MST, and 9:15 am PST. In the Southern Hemisphere, the equinox will mark their first day of autumn. The total duration of spring 2018 is 92 […]

Snow Forecast for Atlanta Friday night

➡︎ Quick Links: ● Latest update ● Initial forecast (Tues 1/19) ● Snow forecast ● Radar Special Update (Thursday 1/21 3:30 pm) Flood Watch now in effect for tonight through Saturday morn Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow effective Fri 3 pm – Sat 7 am. NOTE:  I do not expect any snow in the […]

First freeze of the 2015 season expected at DFW / North Texas

How does the first freeze of 2015 compare with normal (climatology)? ❄️  The average first freeze at DFW is November 22.  Therefore, this year’s freeze was right on schedule, based on the current 30-year average (1981-2010). Other Freeze Statistics for DFW: Average first freeze: November 22 Average last freeze: March 13 Earliest freeze on record: […]

What is virga? There’s rain on radar, but it’s not raining!

The fluid dynamics associated with atmospheric disturbances cause the downstream air (ahead of the disturbance, before it arrives at a location) to rise, and the upstream air (behind the disturbance, i.e., after the disturbance has passed) to sink.  If there is sufficient moisture in the area of rising air, clouds and precipitation may form.  Necessary […]