May 2015: DFW’s Wettest May on Record

May 2015 was an exhausting month for forecasters in Oklahoma and Texas. One storm system after another brought enormous rainfall and significant flooding to many areas.  I will try to post some dynamics/thermodynamics analyses or a general recap of each individual storm system in a future addendum to this post.  For now, I wanted to … Read more

Dallas & Irving Tornado on Sunday, May 24, 2015

Many of you may have been awakened by the Tornado Warning in western Dallas/eastern Tarrant Counties early Sunday morning. The tornado sirens sounded across the warned area, and even in my area near the Grapevine/Southlake border. Fortunately the tornado in Irving dissipated as it moved north-northwest toward the residential areas of Carrollton. As it turns … Read more

DFW: Heavy rain, thunderstorms, & flash flooding Memorial Weekend

Read Initial Forecast #1 | Use Radar/Advisory Tools on the DFW Page Final Update [Rainfall Record Broken – Sunday 5/24] DFW Airport received 3.31 inches of rain today (Sunday, May 24, 2015), which breaks the record for the greatest amount ever recorded on this date. The previous record was 3.28″ set in 1908. Records date … Read more

Strong Tstorms & Flash Flooding Poss for DFW Sat-Sun 5/9 – 5/10

Below is my partial/subjective surface analysis using 2 pm data. There is certainly a convoluted mess of fronts associated with this surface low. However, the dry line is obvious with at least one dry-line bulge southwest of the metroplex. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) in that area exceeds 4,000 J/kg. There is a θe … Read more

DFW: Tstorms Late Weds (4/22) May be Severe w/ Localized Flooding

Update #2 [Wednesday 4/22 10:40 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch*** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the thunderstorms that developed to the northwest as predicted. These continue to move southeast. The watch is in effect until 4 am.  Read my initial forecast discussion posted the day before, on Tuesday 4/21 Update#1 [Radar Update – … Read more

DFW: Severe Thunderstorms Likely Saturday Evening (4/18)

Special Update [Saturday 4/18 7:40 pm] Significant thunderstorm wind damage is likely in the path of this downburst throughout Tarrant County, with winds in excess of 70 mph possible. It is moving northeast through Tarrant County. Velocity Image at 7:40 pm: Fourth Forecast Update [Saturday 4/18 5:45 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 1 am*** Includes … Read more

Much-Needed Rain For N. TX Today (4/8) & Severe Tstorms Tomorrow (4/9)

UPDATE: Thursday 4/9 at 4 pm [Update Regarding Convective Initiation]: My map yesterday placed convective initiation along a McKinney to DFW Airport to Stephenville line.  I am adjusting it west by about 20 miles to from Pilot Point to Fort Worth to Stephenville.  This shift wouldn’t normally be significant (it’s within the margin of error), … Read more

Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain Likely over N TX Thurs Night & Friday (3/20)

Update #5 Friday 3/20 at 1:30 pm [Final Update]:   A few official rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours Sister Grove Ck (Collin): 1.86 Melissa (Collin): 1.43 Prosper (Collin): 1.24 Dallas, Irving Blvd (Dallas): 0.51 Gainesville (Cooke): 1.56 Valley View (Cooke): 1.67 Denton (Denton): 0.81 Ladonia (Fannin): 2.93 Celeste (Hunt): 2.17 Alvord (Wise): 1.14 Update … Read more

DFW Snow and Sleet Totals for March 4-5, 2015 (3/4 & 3/5)

Below are details of the March 4th-5th 2015 snowstorm in North Texas. You may be interested in these related pages: DFW snowfall records dating back to 1898 List of the worst snowstorms to hit DFW (top 20) 2015 snow and sleet events (2014-2015 winter) Current snow cover map (updated daily) Daily Snowfall Accum Stats for … Read more

Winter Storm Expected for North Texas Wednesday (3/4)

Final Update: Thursday 3/5 9 pm:  View the storm reports Discussion #6 Wednesday 3/4 at noon: ***Winter  Storm Warning is in Effect*** I have been analyzing vertical thermodynamic profiles at various times over the next 15 hours and the evolution of the atmosphere continues to support a transition from rain to freezing rain this afternoon, … Read more

Snow Expected over North Texas and DFW on Friday 2/27

Final Update Saturday 2/28: Observed Snowfall Totals The following map was prepared by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth and is a graphical representation of over 200 reports gathered via social media, storm spotters, and official observers.  I will gather additional information that will hopefully provide additional details/specifics.  All updates starting with my initial … Read more

Significant Winter Storm for North Texas Sun Night & Mon (2/22 – 2/23)

Overview: A winter storm is developing for North Texas. I have been monitoring the data very closely for the past few days, and my concern is growing that a problematic sleet & freezing rain event may impact the area beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday.  On Sunday, temperatures should stay in the 40s as overcast … Read more

Rain and Colder Temperatures on the Way for D/FW

Special Update (Sunday 2/15 8:00 pm) ***Freezing Rain Possible Over Western Parts of North Texas*** ***West of a line from Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth*** The strong cold front will move through North Texas tonight as predicted in my previous forecasts. Behind the front, temperatures will fall rapidly into the 30s. As of 8 … Read more

DFW: Rain, windy, & colder Thursday; snow possible Thursday night

(Forecast Posted Tuesday 1/20/15) …Widespread heavy rain & possible winter weather event for North Texas… In my forecast yesterday (Monday), I noted that Thursday’s high temperature would occur at midnight (40s) then fall into the mid 30s for the daytime. This continues to be a very difficult forecast, because there isn’t a preexisting cold airmass … Read more

Coldest airmass thus far will arrive in North Texas Wednesday (1/7)

I’ve been posting updates about this airmass on my Facebook and Twitter pages, but I thought I’d go ahead and write a short discussion about this airmass.  It has the potential to be the coldest air we’ve seen in a year or so, at least when measured by the low temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Precipitation … Read more

DFW: Freezing Rain Expected Over North Texas Tonight and New Year’s Day

Track the storm with the Weather-Net tools:  Advisories/Warnings | Live & Predictive Radar Special Update (Wednesday 12/31 11:30 pm CST) Precipitation is entering North Texas (use the radar links above to track the precipitation).  Temperatures will fall below freezing after the precipitation begins.  As I posted earlier today, the critical line is the 29º wet-bulb … Read more

DFW: Thunderstorms Expected Sunday Afternoon (12/14)

Fast moving thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon and should bring some much-needed rainfall to North Texas.  Below is a brief discussion of our expectations.  If you prefer, you can skip to the forecast summary. Synopsis The vigorous upper-level system that brought heavy rain and snow to portions of the Western U.S. will bring a chance … Read more

DFW: Quick-Hitting Arctic Front Arrives Monday Morning (12/1)

An unseasonably warm weekend is about to commence over North Texas, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.  That will come to an abrupt end first thing Monday morning, with the passage of a very shallow, quick-hitting Arctic front.   Temperatures Monday will be about 40 degrees colder than those of Sunday.  So, get out … Read more

DFW: Thunderstorms with Locally Heavy Rain Today (11/22/14)

A vigorous upper-level disturbance is moving into West Texas this morning.  The trough axis (and associated forcing) will not move east of the area until tonight.  As the system approaches North Texas, a copious amount of Gulf moisture continues to advect into North Texas.  As of 11 am, much of the area has already seen … Read more

DFW: Light sleet and light snow still expected this evening (11/16)

The Arctic front is on schedule, and the colder air is filtering into North Texas as of 11 am (Sunday, 11/16).  This map shows temperatures at 11 am. Upper-Air Data (Morning Sounding and Forecast Soundings) Throughout the morning, drizzle and light rain have been falling across North Texas with temperatures in the mid to upper … Read more

DFW: Light Snow Still Expected Sunday Evening (Sunday 11/16/14)

Published Friday, November 14 at 3:50 pm: Earlier this week, I posted about the potential for light snow on Sunday evening.  The forecast has not changed.  However, because of the timing of the precipitation Sunday evening (after temperatures drop to freezing), I am adding some light accumulations.  The greatest chance for accumulating snow is north … Read more

DFW: Scattered Areas of Light Sleet Expected Tonight (Wed 11/12)

This will be a very brief update to mention the possibility of very light sleet in North Texas tonight.   An upper-level disturbance is moving into Texas, and will provide sufficient (albeit weak) forcing for precipitation.  Temperatures will fall to near freezing in the metroplex and below freezing for areas north of Denton by 10 pm.  … Read more

DFW: Light Snow Possible Sunday Evening With Reinforcing Shot of Arctic Air

For the past 5 days, I have been closely monitoring a disturbance that will move across North Texas on Sunday/Sunday night.  Every meteorologist who has been watching the model data is fully aware of the “accumulating snow” that some of the models have suggested over the past week.  One thing that legitimate meteorologists typically do … Read more

Heavy Rain and Colder Temperatures for DFW on Tuesday 11/4/14

A strong cold front will move through North Texas on Tuesday (11/4/14). The timing of the cold front, and rain amounts may need to be modified with future data. At this time, these are my expectations: Ahead of the front Tuesday morning, temperatures should be 65º to 70º. Temperatures will fall 15 to 20 degrees … Read more