NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has added a new layer to its severe weather outlooks called Intensity Levels, which sit on top of the familiar Marginal–High risk categories and answer a different question: if storms hit, how intense could the worst ones be? This change is aimed squarely at everyday users—people driving I‑35 through Dallas–Fort Worth, commuting on I‑75 around Atlanta, or coaching a kids’ game who just want to know how serious a severe weather day really is.
What actually changed
The 1–5 SPC categories (Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, High) are still the backbone of the outlooks and still describe the coverage and likelihood of severe storms within about 25 miles of a point. What’s new is that the SPC now assigns Intensity Levels—internally called Conditional Intensity Groups (CIGs)—to the individual tornado, wind, and hail outlooks to describe the maximum expected strength of the worst storms that could form.
- Tornado and wind each have three intensity levels (1–3).
- Hail has two intensity levels (1–2).
- These levels replace the old “one size fits all” hatched area that tried to cover every kind of “significant severe” setup.
In plain language, the category still tells you how many severe storms are expected, while the Intensity Level tells you how nasty the worst of those storms could be.
Intensity Levels in everyday terms
SPC has tied each level to roughly how strong storms could get if they form.
| Hazard | Intensity Level | Think of it as… |
|---|---|---|
| Tornado | Level 1 | Environment can support EF2‑type tornadoes or stronger – strong, damaging tornadoes are on the table. |
| Tornado | Level 2 | Environment can support EF3‑type tornadoes – strong, long‑track tornadoes become a real concern. |
| Tornado | Level 3 | Environment could support EF4‑type violent tornadoes – the kind of high‑end outbreak that makes national news. |
| Wind | Level 1 | Potential for hurricane‑force (74+ mph) straight‑line winds. |
| Wind | Level 2 | Pattern favors organized bow echoes or derecho‑type swaths of destructive wind. |
| Wind | Level 3 | Major derecho‑style event likely or ongoing with widespread severe damage. |
| Hail | Level 1 | 2 inch or larger hail possible – big enough to badly damage vehicles and roofs. |
| Hail | Level 2 | 3.5 inch “giant” hail possible – rare, very destructive stones. |
So a “Level 3 (Enhanced) risk with Tornado Intensity Level 2” reads very differently than a “Level 3 risk with no tornado intensity signal,” even if the map color looks the same.
Why this helps regular people (not just weather geeks)
Multiple studies have shown that the public often misorders the SPC category words (Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, etc.) and doesn’t always understand what each color means, even though the forecasts themselves are quite accurate. Adding a clear, numeric intensity scale—“Level 1, 2, 3” for strength—gives people a more concrete anchor for how concerned they should be and how much to adjust their plans.
For example:
- A Slight (Level 2) risk with no intensity signal might be a “routine” severe day: some hail, some 60 mph gusts, maybe a brief tornado.
- An Enhanced (Level 3) risk with Tornado Intensity Level 2 is different: storms may not be everywhere, but any tornado that forms has a realistic chance to be strong (EF3‑type), which calls for more serious shelter planning.
- Emergency managers, school districts, and event planners can better prioritize where and when to move resources by focusing on areas where both the category and the intensity level are high.
In short, Intensity Levels are SPC’s answer to a long‑standing issue: making it obvious which severe weather days are genuinely “high‑end” versus those that are simply noisy but less extreme.
Why Dallas and Atlanta or your city may benefit
Texas: From the Panhandle to the Hill Country, Texas routinely sees days where only a few storms form, but those storms can be monsters—big hail, strong tornadoes, or derecho‑type wind events along drylines and fronts. On those days, the overall risk category might sit at Slight or Enhanced because coverage is limited, yet the new higher Intensity Levels will flag that any storm that does form could be unusually destructive (for example, EF3‑type tornadoes or 80+ mph winds). That gives ranchers, oilfield crews, outdoor venues, and metro areas like DFW or Austin a clearer cue to take extra steps even if the map isn’t “Moderate” or “High.”
Atlanta and north Georgia: Atlanta’s warm‑season setups often blend heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail, and occasional tornadoes, but not every “slight risk” day justifies the same level of concern. When the SPC highlights Wind Intensity Level 1 or 2, that’s a heads‑up that lines of storms could produce hurricane‑force winds around the Perimeter, toppling trees onto roads and power lines even if tornado probabilities are lower. Likewise, a day with Hail Intensity Level 1 under an Enhanced risk tells Atlanta drivers and car‑lot owners that this isn’t just routine pea‑size hail; it’s a day to get vehicles under cover before storms pop.
Both regions deal with fast‑moving, high‑impact storms in heavily populated areas, so an extra line of information about how bad the worst storms could be is especially valuable for traffic, events, and infrastructure.
Cheat Sheet: How to use the new SPC all‑in‑one graphic
To go with the new outlooks, we’ve put together a single graphic that lines up tornado, wind, and hail risk with the corresponding Intensity Levels and the SPC’s 1–5 categories.
Here’s how a non‑meteorologist can use it in under 30 seconds:
- Find today’s SPC category for your location (Level 1–5) and move to that row or color band on the chart.
- Scan across the tornado, wind, and hail panels to see which hazards have higher Intensity Levels that day. For example, you might see a Level 3 risk with Tornado Intensity 2, Wind Intensity 1, and no hail intensity—clearly a tornado‑driven setup instead of a hail event.
- Adjust your plans based on the highest intensity shown, not just the category color. If you’re in Texas or the Atlanta metro and see Intensity Level 2 or 3 for tornadoes or wind, that’s a “double‑check your shelter and stay weather aware” kind of day.
Our goal with this graphic is to bridge the gap between SPC’s detailed science and what the “common Joe” actually needs: a fast way to answer, “Is this a just‑watch‑the-sky day, or a take‑this‑seriously day?”