Oscar rocketed to hurricane strength while heading toward northeast Cuba
As short-lived Nadine moved into Belize, Oscar rocketed to hurricane strength while heading toward northeast Cuba. Tropical development from late next week to next weekend from the general part of the world that gave birth to Milton and Helene.
Two-Day Tropical Outlook
Seven-Day Tropical Storm and Hurricane Outlook
INVEST 94L: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days.
However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week.
NHC gives this now a 40 percent chance of development. There is no way to know at this point if this enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane cones, spaghetti models and tropical storms
- Meteorologists Predict Intense, Active Hurricane Season for 2024
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Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm. It is the strongest hurricane on record to slam into Florida’s Big Bend.
- Hurricane Helene: Critical Threat to Florida, Georgia, and the Southeast
- Since 1850, a category 4 hurricane had never made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida until Idalia did so last year. #Helene is forecast to do it again
- Earlier Posts about Hurricane Helene and Hurricane John: North America could see two devastating landfalls from Category 3+ hurricanes this week. Hurricane John is rapidly intensifying in the Eastern Pacific and is expected to slam into Oaxaca, Mexico as a major hurricane, possibly making landfall as a Category 3+ storm. The storm is extremely slow moving and could drop 20-50 inches of rain, causing catastrophic flooding. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, soon to be Hurricane Helene, is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 in western Florida on Thursday, with the possibility of becoming a stronger hurricane not out of the question. Both could be billion-dollar disasters, bringing major impacts to millions of people.
Hurricane Francine Makes Landfall
Francine was a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds making landfall in Louisiana. Since 2000, 7 Cat 2+ hurricanes have made Louisiana landfall:
Katrina-2005-Cat 3
Rita-2005-Cat 3
Gustav-2008-Cat 2
Laura-2020-Cat 4
Delta-2020-Cat 2
Zeta-2020-Cat 3
Ida-2021-Cat 4
Next Tropical Depression in the Atlantic – Upcoming Hurricane Isaac
- Tropical Storm #Isaac Advisory 5: Isaac Strengthening and Likely to Become a Hurricane Soon!
Tropical Storm Bebinca
Bebinca was a tropical storm in the Philippine Sea early Thursday China Standard Time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said in its latest advisory. The tropical storm had sustained wind speeds of 46 miles per hour.
The Japan Meteorological Agency’s RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center officially classifies #Bebinca as a Severe Tropical Storm as it is forecasting an entrance into the Philippine Area of Responsibility and another landfall in China
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Highlights
Hurricane Francine will be the 3rd continental US hurricane landfall this year (Beryl, Debby). Eight other years since 1900 have had 3+ continental US hurricane landfalls by 9/11: 1915, 1916, 1933, 1934, 1985, 2004, 2005, 2020.
- Record-Breaking Hurricane Beryl Battered Texas with Floods and Storm Surge
The Essential Tools for Tracking Tropical Storms
When it comes to keeping tabs on developing tropical storms and hurricanes, there are three essential maps you should be familiar with: the Forecast Cone, satellite imagery, and radar. The National Hurricane Center’s Forecast Cone provides a visual representation of the storm’s most likely path, including a shaded area indicating the potential range of error. Satellite imagery offers a real-time view of the storm’s cloud structure and organization, which forecasters use to assess its strength and potential for intensification. Finally, radar imagery provides highly detailed information about precipitation intensity and storm movement, especially helpful for pinpointing the exact location of the eye or eyewall in strong hurricanes. The Forecast Cone shows you where the storm is likely headed. Satellite images reveal its size and cloud patterns, hinting at how strong the storm is. Radar pinpoints heavy rain and the exact location of the storm’s center, especially crucial as it gets closer to land.
Going Deeper for Specific Risks
Need more detail? Specialized maps offer incredible insights. Wind Speed Probabilities maps tell you the chances of dangerous winds hitting your area. Storm Surge maps highlight where flooding from the ocean is a threat – a must for coastal areas. And those squiggly “spaghetti models” give a sense of how much uncertainty there is in the longer-term forecast.
Essential Maps:
Forecast Cone (NHC): The iconic cone-shaped graphic shows the probable track of a storm’s center and the likely range of possibilities. It’s important to remember that impacts can occur outside the cone.
Satellite Imagery:
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- Provides real-time visuals of the storm’s cloud structure and organization. Helps identify areas of heavy rain, potential intensification, and the storm’s overall size.
Radar: Provides detailed information about rainfall intensity, storm movement, and can help pinpoint the eye or eyewall for strong hurricanes. Particularly useful for short-term tracking and understanding local impacts.
Specialized Maps:
Wind Speed Probabilities: Shows the chance of experiencing tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds at a specific location. Useful for gauging potential wind damage risks.
Storm Surge Maps: Displays the predicted areas at risk of flooding from storm surge, a major hazard of hurricanes. Critical information for coastal residents.
Spaghetti Models: Collections of potential storm tracks from various forecast models. Helps visualize the uncertainty in the forecast, especially further in the future.
Tropical Tidbits and Spaghetti Models are essential tools for staying informed about tropical weather. Tropical Tidbits offers a wealth of information and analysis, while Spaghetti Models provide a visual representation of potential storm paths. By understanding and utilizing these resources, individuals can make informed decisions and better prepare for the impacts of tropical storms.
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- Hurricane Preparedness