DFW: Light Snow Possible Sunday Evening With Reinforcing Shot of Arctic Air

For the past 5 days, I have been closely monitoring a disturbance that will move across North Texas on Sunday/Sunday night.  Every meteorologist who has been watching the model data is fully aware of the “accumulating snow” that some of the models have suggested over the past week.  One thing that legitimate meteorologists typically do not do is jump on the first model solution that indicates snow and present it as a forecast to the public.  Therefore, I have waited until now (Wed 11/12) to even mention the possibility, opting to analyze all future data for inter/intramodel consistency.

Some of the model solutions earlier this week were very aggressive, and in fact highly unrealistic.  I do believe we stand a chance of seeing some light snow here in North Texas Sunday evening/night (11/16), but I do not expect significant amounts.  While the forcing for precipitation appears to be sufficient, it will be very weak.  If snow flurries or light snow falls during the evening/overnight hours, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dusting to a half inch (as of this moment, 4 days in advance).  I am actually more concerned about the potential for some icy spots on bridges and overpasses late Sunday night and Monday morning as a result of residual moisture on those elevated surface, after the precipitation has ended and temperatures fall into the 20s.  The situation will be monitored closely, so stay tuned.

The following is a very brief discussion of the atmospheric dynamics/thermodynamics that will be in place on Sunday.

Another Surge of Arctic Air

A second cold front will move across North Texas on Sunday.  At this time, the timing of the front is a little uncertain; however, I believe it will move through the metroplex during the afternoon on Sunday (subject to change), with falling temperatures.

Temperatures should start off in the 40s early in the day, and fall through the 30s during the afternoon.  The following image shows approximate temperatures at 6 pm Sunday.

Forecast Temperatures at 6 pm Sunday 11/16/14

Forecast Temperatures at 6 pm Sunday 11/16/14

Upper-Level Disturbance

A disturbance will move across the area on Sunday.  Forcing appears to be relatively weak, mainly owing to the shortwave’s positive tilt; but, it should be sufficient to generate some light precipitation.

500-mb vorticity & geopotential height at 6 pm Sunday

500-mb vorticity & geopotential height at 6 pm Sunday

 Thermodynamic Profile

Thermodynamic profile valid at 6 pm Sunday

Thermodynamic profile valid at 6 pm Sunday

 

Special Update Friday, November 14:  I have created a new post with preliminary snowfall accumulations.

-Chris