Update on thunderstorm potential for tonight (Tuesday 4/26)

The Result [Tuesday 4/26 8:17 pm]

➡︎ NOTE: Read the original update from Monday 4/25.

***Quasi-Linear Convective System Has Evolved as Expected***
***Moving toward DFW with winds of 65+ mph***

  • Winds of 65+ mph detected within the bowing segments…
  • These will arrive in the metroplex over the next two hours…
  • Some wind damage/power outages possible…
  • So far today, there has been NO reports of tornadoes
  • So far today, there has been NO hailstones larger than golfball-tennisball size in the State of Texas.
  • This shows that aiming for the extreme event rarely works in the forecaster’s favor

✏️ The dry line and developing squall line presented a learning opportunity, to show how dry-line convergence can lead to the formation of thunderstorms. Check it out…

Radar at 8:00 pm Tuesday 4/26/16

Quasi-linear Convective System moving toward DFW at 8:17 pm Tuesday 4/26/16

Update #2 [Tuesday 4/26 at 9:30 am]

➡︎ To read the update from Monday 4/25, click here.

Below is my partial surface analysis using 9 am data. The dry line is very well-defined over far West Texas. To the east of the dry line, a very pronounced theta-e ridge (relatively high equivalent potential temperature) extends from northern Oklahoma southwestward to Abilene and beyond. This is where I expect thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, as the dry line propagates into this very warm/moist thermal axis.

My forecast remains the same. I really don’t expect thunderstorms during the day today, given that the cap will take time to erode and the dry line (forcing) is in far west Texas. The thunderstorms should evolve to the west and move into North Texas this evening (7 pm to 11 pm).

Primary threats for N. TX
• Torrential rain (1-2 inches per hour)
• Damaging winds (straight-line)
• Large hail (golfball to *possibly* baseball size, esp W of DFW, lesser threat with time and into DFW)
• Excessive lightning (often occurs with extreme CAPE)

Map Prepared at 9 am Tuesday 4/26/16

9 am Tuesday 4/26 partial surface analysis