A highly dangerous situation is developing across the central Caribbean. Hurricane Melissa is rapidly strengthening and may approach or pass directly over Jamaica this weekend into early next week as a Category 4 or possibly Category 5 hurricane. Based on current satellite and model data, Melissa could bring the worst impacts to Jamaica in nearly four decades, rivaling the devastation caused by Hurricane Gilbert (1988).
Our meteorological analysis shows that Melissa is moving slowly, which increases the risk of prolonged hurricane-force conditions lasting 48 to 72 hours. Residents across the island should finalize all hurricane preparations by Saturday, including securing property and gathering three or more days’ worth of non-perishable food, water, and essential medications.
Live Storm Radar
As Hurricane Melissa’s core edges closer, its circulation will become distinctly visible on Jamaica’s radar network. To help preserve bandwidth for official channels, we’ve embedded a continuously updating, high-resolution live radar loop below, showing Melissa’s real-time approach and threat to Jamaica:
Radar loop courtesy Brian McNoldy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School
Meteorological Impact Highlights
- Extreme Rainfall and Flooding: 12–36 inches of rain are expected, with localized totals over 40 inches possible in mountainous terrain. This will likely cause catastrophic inland flooding and landslides.
- Dangerous Storm Surge: Depending on Melissa’s exact track, storm surges exceeding 12 feet could inundate coastal regions, especially along southern and eastern shores.
- Destructive Winds: If the eyewall makes landfall, sustained winds may reach 115–125 mph or greater, resulting in widespread structural damage and power losses lasting weeks.
Historical Perspective
Jamaica’s last catastrophic hurricane was Gilbert (1988). That storm struck near Kingston with Category 3–4 intensity, producing a 19-foot surge, 32 inches of rain, and massive agricultural losses. Melissa could equal or surpass those impacts, depending on its final track and speed.
Forecast Confidence & Advisory
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect, and these may be upgraded as Melissa approaches. Advanced hurricane models—including HAFS-A and HAFS-B—show a roughly 50% probability of major landfall. Every part of Jamaica should prepare as though a direct impact will occur.
This advisory is not meant to create alarm, but to ensure readiness. As meteorologists, our duty is to communicate risk clearly and calmly. “You can hide from the wind – but not from the water.” With rainfall totals measured in feet and a long-duration wind event possible, Jamaica faces a life-threatening situation if Melissa stays on its current path.
Follow updates from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica and your local officials. Check for evacuation orders and complete all protective actions now.
For more live tracking tools, visit our StormNet® Severe Weather Browser.