Heavy rain event for North Texas/DFW Thanksgiving – Saturday 11/28

Outcome Update #2 Posted Sunday 11/29/15 at Noon

The rainfall configuration and amounts lined up very well with my forecasts leading up to this event (documented further down this page).  Records were set, as predicted, and 2015 will go down as the wettest year on record.  Check out our real-time rainfall tally to see how much rain fell at DFW this year (2015).


Outcome Update #1 Posted Friday 11/27/15 at Noon

***Daily Rainfall Record Broken***
***4.65″ Since Yesterday Morning***
***2015 Now the Wettest Year on Record***
***Rainfall records broken***

So far today, 1.94 inches of rain at DFW shatters the previous record for 11/27 (.76″ set in 1958).

DFW has received 4.65 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. 2015 is now the wettest year on record, shattering the previous record by nearly 2 inches (previously: 53.54 in 1991; 2015…so far…= 55.40″)

24-hour radar-estimated rainfall 11-27-15
24-hour radar-estimated rainfall 11-27-15

Forecast #5 Posted on Thursday 11/26/15 at 8 pm

***Heavy Rain Event Unfolding as Expected***
***Flooding Possible Tonight/Tomorrow Morn***

◙ This is the radar image at 5:35 pm. Heavy rain developing to the west of the metroplex will expand in coverage and “train” from southwest to northeast (“training” is a term for precipitation that continuously redevelops and moves over the same areas, like the cars of a moving train).

◙ I have drawn my predicted rainfall amounts for tonight (by 8 am tomorrow).

◙ NOTE: The lines are very rough estimates so don’t use them as an absolute indicator for the rainfall at your house if your town happens to be on/near a line.

◙ Much of the area will receive more than 4 inches of rain tonight. This includes the DFW Metroplex.

◙ Flash Flood Warnings may be needed later tonight.

Please check back for updates and use the free, interactive tools on my website.

Highlights for TONIGHT:
◉ Atmospheric precipitable water > 99th percentile
◉ Rainfall rates of up to 2″ per hour poss
◉ Displayed: Radar image from 5:35 pm 11/26
◉ Displayed: Rainfall amounts by 8 am Friday
◉ Rainfall will “train” southwest to northeast
◉ By tomorrow morn, up to 6″ of rain possible in red
◉ 1 to 3 inches of rain (locally 4+ inches) in white
◉ Flash flooding possible overnight

Rainfall for tonight (11/26) through tomorrow morning (Fri 11/27)
Rainfall for tonight (11/26) through tomorrow morning (Fri 11/27)

Forecast #4 Posted on Tuesday 11/24/15 at 4 pm

***Heavy Rain Event Thursday eve – Sunday morn***
***Widespread 3 to 5 inches, locally higher***
***Record rainfall Friday & Saturday***
***Flooding possible***

◙ The only forecast change is to increase total amounts. I am still forecasting a heavy rain event, which I began forecasting several days ago.

◙ Atmospheric precipitable water content will increase through Thursday, eventually exceeding the 99th percentile for this time of year (based on a 65-year database).

◙ Moisture content that high is conducive to very rapid rainfall rates, possibly up to 2 inches per hour within the heavier downpours.

◙ I expect light rain Thursday, but the first round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will move into North Texas from the north Thursday Night.

◙ Rounds of heavy rain will be interrupted by long periods of overcast and ares of light rain.

◙ Total rainfall by the time the rain tapers off early Sunday morning should be in the range of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts.

◙ Here are some key points:
?Rainfall Friday will break the daily record
?Near-record rainfall on Saturday
?The event total should make 2015 the wettest year on record
?Flooding poss (flood-prone, urban, & low-lying areas)
?I expect a Flood Watch to be issued by Thursday


Forecast #3 Posted on Monday 11/23/15 at 8 am

***Heavy rain event still expected late week/weekend***

◙ With my forecast update later this morning, I am going to raise my projected rainfall amounts to 3 to 5 inches from I-20 northward by Sunday (cumulative rainfall from Thursday through Sunday).

◙ Near record rainfall amounts possible.

◙ Rainfall by Sunday will make 2015 the wettest year on record.

◙ This is a long-duration rain event and some flooding will be possible.

◙ I am still forecasting rain on Thanksgiving Day, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

◙ Friday’s high will also be in the mid 60s before a cold front moves through, followed by falling temperatures into the 40s.

◙ The chance of rain Thursday through Saturday is near 100%.

Forecast Summary Through Saturday…

  • Today… Sunny. High in the lower 60s.
  • Tuesday… Increasing clouds. High in the mid 60s.
  • Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. High in the lower 70s.
  • Thanksgiving Day… Rain likely. High in the mid 60s. Chance of rain is near 100%.
  • Friday… Rain likely. High in the mid 60s early, then rapidly falling temperatures through the 40s. Chance of rain is near 100%.
  • Friday night… Rain likely. Low in the upper 30s. Chance of rain is near 100%.
  • Saturday Rain likely. High in the lower 40s.

Forecast #2 Posted on Saturday 11/21/15

***Heavy Rain Event Thursday/Thursday night Through Saturday***
***1 to 3 inches Metroplex; 2 to 4 inches N/NW***

View the first forecast posted on 11/19/15

◙ I will be watching this system very closely over the next couple of days, and changes may be needed; but at this time, I am forecasting a heavy rain event with flooding possible over the northern 1/2 of North Texas (especially north of D/FW).

◙ Atmospheric precipitable water content will exceed the 99th percentile for late November (based on a 65-year PWAT climatology).

◙ I place the axis of heaviest rain along and either side of a line from Eastland to Krum/Denton to Sherman with 2 to 4 inches of rain (isolated higher).

◙ The southern edge of the heaviest rain appears to be right over the metroplex, where 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely.

◙ The period of heavy rainfall is sunrise Thursday through early evening, with multiple rounds through Saturday morning.

◙ Since Thursday is Thanksgiving, I wanted to give an early heads up. Given that I’m posting this a little earlier than I normally would (5 days in advance), some changes in the rainfall axis/amounts may be needed before Thursday, so check back for updates.


Forecast #1 Posted on Thursday 11/19/15

…Thanksgiving Day Forecast for DFW…
Mostly cloudy and warm with rain and thunderstorms likely. High 65º to 70º.


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