The remnants of Category 4 Typhoon Halong evolved into a powerful extratropical storm that struck western Alaska with hurricane-force winds and record-breaking storm surge. Entire villages such as Kwigillingok and Kipnuk were inundated, leaving over 1,400 residents displaced. One woman was confirmed dead, two remain missing, and more than 50 people were rescued from rapidly rising waters and wind gusts believed to have reached nearly 100 miles per hour.
Kwigillingok, with a population of 321, saw many homes swept away. With winds unfettered by natural barriers, surge reached 6 to 9 feet, overwhelming the coastal community’s infrastructure. Critical gaps in weather balloon launches led to forecast errors, leaving officials and residents little time to react.
While Halong began as a super typhoon in the Pacific, its transition into a mid-latitude cyclone—driven by jet stream energy—produced devastation reminiscent of past storms, but this was not a tropical cyclone at landfall. Similar events, such as Typhoon Merbok in 2022 and the 2011 Bering Sea cyclone, also transitioned into extratropical systems that battered Alaska’s western coastlines, indicating a recurring threat each autumn for vulnerable villages.
This latest storm, one of the worst in regional memory, has spurred massive emergency efforts and ongoing plans to recover, rebuild, and shore up Alaska’s exposed coastal communities.
CNN and multiple other credible sources have reported that weather models and the National Weather Service (NWS) in Alaska did not accurately forecast the track and intensity of the storm that devastated western Alaska. According to their coverage, the models initially indicated the worst impacts would occur further south and west than what actually occurred, leading to a significant underestimation of the threat for the hardest-hit communities.
NOAA officials and Alaska meteorologists, including Rick Thoman, have specifically cited the lack of weather balloon launches before the event as a major factor. Regular balloon launches, which provide crucial upper-air data for forecasts, were reduced or even missing in western Alaska due to recent budget cuts and staffing shortages. This data gap resulted in weather models being less accurate, especially regarding the exact track and rapid intensification of the cyclone as it approached the coast. Rick Thoman described the storm as a “nightmare scenario” for forecasters: the available models failed in critical ways, compounded by the lack of upper-air observational data.
In summary:
- The forecast failure was attributed to both a model “miss” and a lack of weather balloon data.
- These gaps made it extremely difficult for NWS forecasters to provide more lead time and accurate warnings for the communities ultimately hit hardest by the storm.