Moderate Risk for Significant Rainfall for Southeast Texas and Louisiana November 18-24

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A deepening trough out west and a strong fetch of Gulf moisture will help fire up some big-time rainfall. This isn’t your typical passing shower—we’re talking rain events with over an inch possible in roughly a day’s time for the higher-risk areas. Some locations could see even more if convection ramps up.

A significant rainfall event is brewing for next week, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center spotlighting southeast Texas and southern Louisiana for the highest threat of heavy precipitation between November 18-24, 2025. The just-released outlook places much of Louisiana and the far east Texas border region under a Moderate Risk (40-60%) for heavy precipitation, particularly centered on November 19-20. This means these areas could see over an inch of rain in a single day, with the potential for isolated totals reaching 2-4 inches or more if thunderstorms develop.

Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Alabama rainfall risk into late November.

The Moderate Risk zone is surrounded by a broad Slight Risk (20-40%) covering east Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and into Georgia—signaling widespread periods of heavy rain and the possibility of localized flooding through November 22.

Forecast models point to a classic Gulf moisture setup, driven by an upper-level trough and slow-moving boundaries that will deliver repeated rounds of soaking rain right where soils are already sensitive to flooding. Urban and low-lying areas in southeast Texas and especially southern Louisiana are most at risk for disruptions, travel delays, and potential flash flooding.

Key takeaways:

  • Louisiana and southeast Texas have the highest risk for excessive rain and flooding.
  • Moderate Risk (40-60% chance) of heavy precipitation November 19-20.
  • Be weather aware and stay tuned to NWS updates for flood watches and warnings.
  • If you live in or travel through these regions, have backup plans and never drive through flooded roads—turn around, don’t drown!

Stay with trusted sources for the latest guidance as the event approaches. The next week could bring some of the region’s most active weather so far this season.

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