Strong Tstorms & Flash Flooding Poss for DFW Sat-Sun 5/9 – 5/10

Below is my partial/subjective surface analysis using 2 pm data. There is certainly a convoluted mess of fronts associated with this surface low. However, the dry line is obvious with at least one dry-line bulge southwest of the metroplex. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) in that area exceeds 4,000 J/kg. There is a θe […]

Historic Rainfall Event in the Oklahoma City Metro on 5/6/15

Slow-moving, training supercells brought enormous rainfall amounts to the southern Oklahoma City metro on Wednesday, May 6, 2015. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour occurred with the thunderstorms. Update: The rainfall total has been updated to reflect the final official amount as confirmed by the NWS.  The change was minor (a tenth of […]

DFW: Tstorms Late Weds (4/22) May be Severe w/ Localized Flooding

Update #2 [Wednesday 4/22 10:40 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch*** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the thunderstorms that developed to the northwest as predicted. These continue to move southeast. The watch is in effect until 4 am.  Read my initial forecast discussion posted the day before, on Tuesday 4/21 Update#1 [Radar Update – […]

DFW: Severe Thunderstorms Likely Saturday Evening (4/18)

Special Update [Saturday 4/18 7:40 pm] Significant thunderstorm wind damage is likely in the path of this downburst throughout Tarrant County, with winds in excess of 70 mph possible. It is moving northeast through Tarrant County. Velocity Image at 7:40 pm: Fourth Forecast Update [Saturday 4/18 5:45 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 1 am*** Includes […]

Spring Freeze for the Southeast Next Weekend (3/28-3/29)

→ Read my initial forecast published on Saturday, March 21 Final Update – Observed Low Temperatures on the morning of March 29, 2014 The freeze that was predicted for over a week verified perfectly. All locations in northern Georgia fell below freezing for 4 or more hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I’ve gone through the observations, […]

What is the Weather-Ready Nation Initiative?

The United States is also home to the most frequent occurrence and the largest variety of extreme weather events of any other country in the world.  These events include, but are not limited to, extreme heat/cold, snowstorms, tropical storms and hurricanes, droughts, areal and flash floods, hail storms, and tornadoes.  While none of this is […]

What is Cold Air Damming (the Wedge)?

Cold-air damming (CAD), often called “the wedge” in the Southeast, is an interesting meteorological feature that can result in tricky forecasts for meteorologists. Topography plays a major role in CAD events, and you need a mountainous range for this feature to develop. While CAD can occur in the Rockies, it is predominant east of the […]

DFW Snow and Sleet Totals for March 4-5, 2015 (3/4 & 3/5)

Below are details of the March 4th-5th 2015 snowstorm in North Texas. You may be interested in these related pages: DFW snowfall records dating back to 1898 List of the worst snowstorms to hit DFW (top 20) 2015 snow and sleet events (2014-2015 winter) Current snow cover map (updated daily) Daily Snowfall Accum Stats for […]

Atlanta: Mid 70s on Wed (3/4), Arctic front Thursday (3/5)

For a brief moment, it will feel like spring in northern Georgia.  I expect temperatures on Wednesday (3/4) to be in the lower 70s.  However, an Arctic front will move through Atlanta on Thursday morning, with temperatures falling through the 30s.  Low temperatures Friday morning (3/6) will be in the lower 20s. A lot of […]

Winter Storm Expected for North Texas Wednesday (3/4)

Final Update: Thursday 3/5 9 pm:  View the storm reports Discussion #6 Wednesday 3/4 at noon: ***Winter  Storm Warning is in Effect*** I have been analyzing vertical thermodynamic profiles at various times over the next 15 hours and the evolution of the atmosphere continues to support a transition from rain to freezing rain this afternoon, […]

Snow Expected over North Texas and DFW on Friday 2/27

Final Update Saturday 2/28: Observed Snowfall Totals The following map was prepared by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth and is a graphical representation of over 200 reports gathered via social media, storm spotters, and official observers.  I will gather additional information that will hopefully provide additional details/specifics.  All updates starting with my initial […]

Arctic Blast Will Bring Record Cold on Thursday 2/19

Overview: The next Arctic front will move through Nashville by Wednesday afternoon (2/18) and through Birmingham/Atlanta by Wednesday evening.  This airmass will bring record-cold temperatures to the area, even breaking record-cold high temperatures.Final Update #4 Friday 2/20 11 pm EST: The following are the official records tied or broken, as predicted.  A warming trend is […]

Rain and Colder Temperatures on the Way for D/FW

Special Update (Sunday 2/15 8:00 pm) ***Freezing Rain Possible Over Western Parts of North Texas*** ***West of a line from Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth*** The strong cold front will move through North Texas tonight as predicted in my previous forecasts. Behind the front, temperatures will fall rapidly into the 30s. As of 8 […]

Weather Myths: Too Warm for the Snow to Stick?

Before I begin this piece, I want to present a challenge.  The following chart shows the actual high and low temperatures for a full month in Atlanta, Georgia. *A condensed version of this writeup was also featured in the Douglas County Sentinel. Challenge: Can you spot the day with a historic snowstorm? During this particular […]

Birmingham’s Winter Storm Watch, Warning, & Advisory Criteria for Alabama

The National Weather Service has sole responsibility for issuing weather watches and warnings.  When it comes to winter weather, there are numerous advisory types ranging from Wind Chill Advisories to Ice Storm and Blizzard Warnings.  This page is devoted to the four main winter weather products:  Winter Storm Watches, Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, […]

DFW: Rain, windy, & colder Thursday; snow possible Thursday night

(Forecast Posted Tuesday 1/20/15) …Widespread heavy rain & possible winter weather event for North Texas… In my forecast yesterday (Monday), I noted that Thursday’s high temperature would occur at midnight (40s) then fall into the mid 30s for the daytime. This continues to be a very difficult forecast, because there isn’t a preexisting cold airmass […]

A Brief History of Weather Forecasting

The Weather Bureau, now known as the National Weather Service, was established on February 9, 1870 by the 41st United States Congress and signed by President Ulysses S. Grant.  On March 29, 1870, the new weather forecasting service was officially assigned to the U.S. Army Signal Service within the Department of War and given the […]

Arctic Airmass Moves into Atlanta by Wednesday (1/7)

Special Update (Wednesday, January 7 at 8 pm EST) Temperatures are already falling into the teens in the western and northern suburbs. Current temperatures are a couple of degrees colder at this hour than model guidance had indicated. Dew points (a measure of atmospheric moisture) continue to drop, and temperatures tonight should certainly be on […]

Atlanta: Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, & Severe Thunderstorms Possible

This page was updated on Tuesday 12/23 at 1:17 pm EST:  A Flood Watch has been issued Useful Tools on iWeatherNet:  Advisories | Interactive Radar Christmas Week Forecast/Event Timing: Monday/Monday Night: Rain likely. Temperatures steady in the mid 40s. Tuesday: Dense fog much of the day.  Rain and thunderstorms developing late. Rain increasing in intensity […]