Days Until Winter 2018 Countdown

The winter (December) solstice will occur on Friday, December 21, 2018 at 22:23 UTC (5:23 pm EST, 4:23 pm CST, 3:23 pm MST, 2:23 pm PST. The total duration of winter 2018-19 is 88 days, 23 hours, and 35 minutes. How many days are left until winter? Winter 2018 Begins In How many days until […]

Dry line convergence & thunderstorm squall line formation

This phenomenon is NOT unusual, but it doesn’t always happen.  Today, the dry line and the resulting squall-line were perfectly aligned.  The data presented a teaching moment that I couldn’t pass up.  At the end of the animation, I zoom in so you can see the wind barbs pointing toward the dry line. The air […]

9 am Tuesday 4/26 partial surface analysis

Update on thunderstorm potential for tonight (Tuesday 4/26)

The Result [Tuesday 4/26 8:17 pm] ➡︎ NOTE: Read the original update from Monday 4/25. ***Quasi-Linear Convective System Has Evolved as Expected*** ***Moving toward DFW with winds of 65+ mph*** Winds of 65+ mph detected within the bowing segments… These will arrive in the metroplex over the next two hours… Some wind damage/power outages possible… […]

Forecast sounding for Fort Worth valid 7pm CDT April 26, 2016

DFW: Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday Evening 4/26

I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of […]

Live stream video from storm chasers

Storm Chasers Broadcasting Live – Watch Now!

Future Radar Storm Chasers Live Storm Reports Rainfall Totals Lightning During periods of severe weather, storm chasers tend to converge on the predicted region, devise their strategy, and hit the road in pursuit of convective development unmatched in variety and intensity anywhere in the world. The United States is home to the most spectacular supercells, […]

A day in my life as a forecaster at the NWS in Fort Worth

A little over a decade ago, I was a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.  Prior to forecasting for North Texas, I was a tropical forecaster at the National Hurricane Center… my first full-time professional position after I completed my master’s degree in 1998.   I loved working in Miami, but my scientific interests […]

Snow Accumulation (Current): Snow Depth & Percent Coverage

Our high-resolution maps of accumulated snowfall are updated several times a day for the United States and much of Canada. ● Today’s Snow Cover Stats ● Interactive Map Snow Cover Map (Current – High-Resolution) Note: Refresh the browser if data fail to load         Today’s Snow-Cover Percent, Depth, & Liquid Equivalent (SWE) […]

A few thoughts on forecast techniques & forecast variance

Friday 2/12… For the sake of conversation, I wanted to share some thoughts about forecast variance (i.e., the tendency for forecasts to vary from one meteorologist to another), forecast advancements, and forecast techniques. It goes without saying that atmospheric prediction is *extremely* difficult and time consuming. During an active pattern, a forecast for a 36-hour […]

Light snow for Atlanta early next week (Feb 8-9)

Final Update [Tuesday, February 9, 2016] Forecast Verification  [Previous Forecasts Further Down the Page]     Forecast Update #2 for Atlanta – Posted Friday 2/5/16 ***No Forecast Changes*** ***Light snow Monday night/Tuesday*** ***Some light accumulations possible*** ◙ A strong cold front will bring drastic temperature changes to Georgia Monday night… ◙ To get caught up […]

How Many Days Until Spring 2018?

The spring (vernal) equinox will occur on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 at 16:15 UTC (12:15 pm EDT, 11:15 am CDT, 10:15 am MDT, 9:15 am PDT). The total duration of spring 2018 is 92 days, 17 hours, and 55 minutes. So how many days are left until Spring? Spring 2018 Begins In   Related: How […]

Snow Forecast for Atlanta Friday night

➡︎ Quick Links: ● Latest update ● Initial forecast (Tues 1/19) ● Snow forecast ● Radar Special Update (Thursday 1/21 3:30 pm) Flood Watch now in effect for tonight through Saturday morn Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow effective Fri 3 pm – Sat 7 am. NOTE:  I do not expect any snow in the […]

First freeze of the 2015 season expected at DFW / North Texas

How does the first freeze of 2015 compare with normal (climatology)? ❄️  The average first freeze at DFW is November 22.  Therefore, this year’s freeze was right on schedule, based on the current 30-year average (1981-2010). Other Freeze Statistics for DFW: Average first freeze: November 22 Average last freeze: March 13 Earliest freeze on record: […]

What is virga? There’s rain on radar, but it’s not raining!

The fluid dynamics associated with atmospheric disturbances cause the downstream air (ahead of the disturbance, before it arrives at a location) to rise, and the upstream air (behind the disturbance, i.e., after the disturbance has passed) to sink.  If there is sufficient moisture in the area of rising air, clouds and precipitation may form.  Necessary […]

What is thunder? How hot is lightning?

Imagine yourself as a cloud, happily floating over the surface of the Earth without a care in the world. As you drift across the sky, the millions of tiny water droplets and ice crystals that you are composed of brush against each other, causing a buildup of electric charges in your cloud body. The negative […]

Heavy Rain Event for North Texas on Friday 10/30

Final Rainfall Amounts [Posted Saturday 10/31 at 1:25 pm] The NWS in Fort Worth prepared this graphic depicting storm total rainfall amounts. Using the legend, I drew the 2-inch line. Clearly, most of the area saw 2 to 4 inches, but there was an area of 4 to 7 inches in Tarrant, Dallas, Johnson, and […]