Tropical Storm Colin Becomes Earliest “C” Storm on Record (June 5, 2016)

On Sunday June 5, 2016, Tropical Storm Colin formed in the Gulf of Mexico, making it the earliest “C” tropical storm on record.  View iWeatherNet’s tropical cyclone page for more information. See Also: January 2016 Hurricane Alex: Strongest Atlantic Winter Hurricane on Record The Earliest “C” Storms Found in the Historical Record For the Atlantic … Read more

Days Until Winter 2021 Countdown

2021 Winter Solstice Tuesday, December 21 at 10:59 am EST Duration of Winter 2021-22: 88 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes How many days until winter? Winter 2021 Begins In

Dry line convergence & thunderstorm squall line formation

This phenomenon is NOT unusual, but it doesn’t always happen.  Today, the dry line and the resulting squall-line were perfectly aligned.  The data presented a teaching moment that I couldn’t pass up.  At the end of the animation, I zoom in so you can see the wind barbs pointing toward the dry line. The air … Read more

Update on thunderstorm potential for tonight (Tuesday 4/26)

9 am Tuesday 4/26 partial surface analysis

The Result [Tuesday 4/26 8:17 pm] ➡︎ NOTE: Read the original update from Monday 4/25. ***Quasi-Linear Convective System Has Evolved as Expected*** ***Moving toward DFW with winds of 65+ mph*** Winds of 65+ mph detected within the bowing segments… These will arrive in the metroplex over the next two hours… Some wind damage/power outages possible… … Read more

DFW: Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday Evening 4/26

Forecast sounding for Fort Worth valid 7pm CDT April 26, 2016

I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of … Read more

Mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) over southern Alabama on 3/24/16

On the afternoon of March 24, 2016, a stunning mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) formed within a mesoscale convective system as it moved over southern Alabama. I created the animation below using a sequence of radar images provided by the College of DuPage. What is an MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex)? An MCV is an area of … Read more

Snow Accumulation (Current): Snow Depth & Percent Coverage

Our high-resolution maps of accumulated snowfall are updated several times a day for the United States and much of Canada. ● Today’s Snow Cover Stats ● Interactive Map Snow Cover Map (Current – High-Resolution) Note: Refresh the browser if data fail to load Today’s Snow-Cover Percent, Depth, & Liquid Equivalent (SWE) These stats include the … Read more

Buy a Power Generator for Severe Weather Power Outages

Every emergency guide out there suggests you get a backup generator to power your home after the electricity goes out, so learning more about home generators work and what they can do is a must if you want to be prepared. Hurricanes, winter storms and even simple outages can happen at any time; no matter … Read more

A few thoughts on forecast techniques & forecast variance

Friday 2/12… For the sake of conversation, I wanted to share some thoughts about forecast variance (i.e., the tendency for forecasts to vary from one meteorologist to another), forecast advancements, and forecast techniques. It goes without saying that atmospheric prediction is *extremely* difficult and time consuming. During an active pattern, a forecast for a 36-hour … Read more

Light snow for Atlanta early next week (Feb 8-9)

Final Update [Tuesday, February 9, 2016] Forecast Verification  [Previous Forecasts Further Down the Page]     Forecast Update #2 for Atlanta – Posted Friday 2/5/16 ***No Forecast Changes*** ***Light snow Monday night/Tuesday*** ***Some light accumulations possible*** ◙ A strong cold front will bring drastic temperature changes to Georgia Monday night… ◙ To get caught up … Read more

How Many Days Until Spring 2022?

2022 Spring Equinox Sunday, March 20 at 11:33 am EDT Duration of Spring 2022: 92 days, 17 hours, 55 minutes So how many days are left until Spring? Spring 2022 Begins In

January will end with springlike temperatures in North Texas

Forecast Update [Saturday 1/30 7:45 am] ***80º today ~ 25 deg above normal*** ***Wind gusts to 40 mph late afternoon/tonight*** This is an update to the original forecast from Monday 1/25 — The only change is to raise high temperatures for today as I mentioned would be possible in the Monday forecast update. The springlike … Read more

Snow Forecast for Atlanta Friday night

➡︎ Quick Links: ● Latest update ● Initial forecast (Tues 1/19) ● Snow forecast ● Radar Special Update (Thursday 1/21 3:30 pm) Flood Watch now in effect for tonight through Saturday morn Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow effective Fri 3 pm – Sat 7 am. NOTE:  I do not expect any snow in the … Read more

Hurricane Alex: Strongest Atlantic Winter Hurricane on Record

January 14, 2016 (1 pm EST) Max-Sustained Wind: 75 kt / 85 mph / 981 mb / Category 1 View the list of active tropical cyclones Interesting Statistics about Hurricane Alex Alex is only the 2nd-known Atlantic hurricane to form during the month of January since records began (partial record as far back as 1842). … Read more

Tropical Storm Alex in January? How rare are winter tropical storms?

Special (1/14/2016) Alex became a hurricane on Thursday Jan 14, 2016 Update [Wednesday January 13, 2016 at 5 pm AST] Sub-Tropical Storm Alex has formed in the East Atlantic.  As discussed below, Alex is only the second-known storm to form during the month of January in the 174-year database (1842-present). ➡︎ See also:  Forecast #1 … Read more

Atlanta: December 2015 is Atlanta’s warmest December on record

December 2015 was unseasonably warm for Atlanta, Georgia.  The temperature fell below freezing only one time, on December 19th when the low temperature was 29ºF. The day prior, on December 18th, the low was only 32ºF. In 2015, the average temperature (combined high and low) was 57.5ºF, which breaks the record previously set 126 years … Read more

Record-warm weather for Christmas weekend 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia

2015 was Atlanta’s Warmest Christmas on Record Results of My Forecast Posted on December 23rd On December 23rd, I predicted that records would be tied or broken each day from Christmas Eve through December 27th (4 days in a row).  As of 5 am, Sunday 12/27, the forecast has been a success. My median forecast … Read more

DFW: 2015 is the wettest year on record for Dallas/Fort Worth

Rainfall data for 2015 at DFW and the 117 year trend

Rainfall Records for DFW (Since Records Began) [year]: Rainfall so far this year DFW Records Summary: 2015 is the wettest year on record (rainfall in 2015) Wettest November on record The most rain ever recorded on any day in November (11/27/15) The greatest 2-day total ever recorded within the 215 days between September 23 and … Read more

Heavy rain event for North Texas/DFW Thanksgiving – Saturday 11/28

Outcome Update #2 Posted Sunday 11/29/15 at Noon The rainfall configuration and amounts lined up very well with my forecasts leading up to this event (documented further down this page).  Records were set, as predicted, and 2015 will go down as the wettest year on record.  Check out our real-time rainfall tally to see how … Read more

First freeze of the 2015 season expected at DFW / North Texas

How does the first freeze of 2015 compare with normal (climatology)? ❄️  The average first freeze at DFW is November 22.  Therefore, this year’s freeze was right on schedule, based on the current 30-year average (1981-2010). Other Freeze Statistics for DFW: Average first freeze: November 22 Average last freeze: March 13 Earliest freeze on record: … Read more

What is virga? There’s rain on radar, but it’s not raining!

The fluid dynamics associated with atmospheric disturbances cause the downstream air (ahead of the disturbance, before it arrives at a location) to rise, and the upstream air (behind the disturbance, i.e., after the disturbance has passed) to sink.  If there is sufficient moisture in the area of rising air, clouds and precipitation may form.  Necessary … Read more

What is thunder? How hot is lightning?

Imagine yourself as a cloud, happily floating over the surface of the Earth without a care in the world. As you drift across the sky, the millions of tiny water droplets and ice crystals that you are composed of brush against each other, causing a buildup of electric charges in your cloud body. The negative … Read more

Heavy Rain Event for North Texas on Friday 10/30

Final Rainfall Amounts [Posted Saturday 10/31 at 1:25 pm] The NWS in Fort Worth prepared this graphic depicting storm total rainfall amounts. Using the legend, I drew the 2-inch line. Clearly, most of the area saw 2 to 4 inches, but there was an area of 4 to 7 inches in Tarrant, Dallas, Johnson, and … Read more

Predicted Heavy Rain Event is Underway; DFW Rainfall Record Broken

➡︎ Update History: Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) & Updates 2 through 5 | Update #6 | Update #7 Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙  Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record for the date (2.19″) set in 1908. ◙  Record #2 [Broken] 3.55 inches … Read more

Heavy Rain Event for N. Texas this weekend (10/22 – 10/24)

  ➡︎  Update History:  Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) | Update #2 | Update #3 | Update #4 | Results/Records Broken  Latest Forecasts (Starting at Update #6 on Friday 10/23) Continued Here Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙  Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record … Read more