Dallas/Fort Worth/North Texas Forecast Summary [Wednesday 10/25] ➤ As I discussed in my previous DFW forecast posted on Monday, the coldest air so far this season will overspread North Texas on Friday. ➤ Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90º tomorrow (Thursday, October 26) thanks to downslope/compressional warming with southwest winds. ➤ … Read more
Forecast Discussion for DFW/North Texas [Posted on Monday 10/23/17] …Coolest air so far this season arrives Friday… ➤ Following highs in the low-mid 80s today, a weak cold front tonight will bring temperatures back down to seasonal levels tomorrow and Wednesday. ➤ A bit warmer on Thursday, ahead of the next cold front, with temperatures … Read more
Last year on December 26th, the day after Christmas Day, an outbreak of tornadoes occurred near the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, metroplex. The area of Rowlett was hit the hardest by a violent EF-4 tornado. Many families lost everything as houses were completely destroyed, and donations for gifts and toys are being accepted for affected children. … Read more
These forecast updates can also be found on our Facebook page. I have compiled them here for easy access as we track the first fall cold front, very early for North Texas, if this verifies. Note: Scroll down the page to see previous updates dating back to 8/27… Follow Up [Monday 9/12] The following … Read more
Interesting rainfall tidbits from the deluge in the Metroplex on Monday 7/4/16 The total rainfall at DFW Airport on the 4th of July 2016 was 3.20″ This shattered the daily record for 7/4 by 141% (previous record: 1.31″ in 2006) Compared with the entire month of July, as well as June + July… It ranked … Read more
Currently at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) The temperature is: DFW’s heat index is: °F Current Conditions Around N. TX How many days until fall? It’s pretty much a given that summertime in North Texas will be hot. However, there is a fine line between “hot” and dangerously hot. In other words, “only” a few degrees can … Read more
The Result [Tuesday 4/26 8:17 pm] ➡︎ NOTE: Read the original update from Monday 4/25. ***Quasi-Linear Convective System Has Evolved as Expected*** ***Moving toward DFW with winds of 65+ mph*** Winds of 65+ mph detected within the bowing segments… These will arrive in the metroplex over the next two hours… Some wind damage/power outages possible… … Read more
I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of … Read more
On Sunday, March 13, 2016, DFW Airport (along with many other locations) reached 80 degrees for the first time this year. Prior to 3/13, the last time DFW was at or above 80º was on December 26th. December 26, 2015 was the date of the historic EF-4 tornado that tore a path through the eastern … Read more
Forecast Update [Saturday 1/30 7:45 am] ***80º today ~ 25 deg above normal*** ***Wind gusts to 40 mph late afternoon/tonight*** This is an update to the original forecast from Monday 1/25 — The only change is to raise high temperatures for today as I mentioned would be possible in the Monday forecast update. The springlike … Read more
Christmas Week Forecast Page ➡︎ Heavy Rain Event & Possible Flooding: ● Forecast #1 Thu 12/24 ● Forecast #2 Fri 12/25 ➡︎ All Christmas Week Updates: ● #1 Sun 12/13 ● #2 Tues 12/15 ● #3 Sat 12/19 ● #4 Thurs 12/24 ● #5 Fri 12/25 First forecast is at the … Read more
Rainfall Records for DFW (Since Records Began) [year]: Rainfall so far this year DFW Records Summary: When was the wettest year on record for Dallas, Texas? (compare to rainfall in 2015) When was the wettest November on record for Dallas, Texas? The most rain ever recorded on any day in November (11/27/15) The greatest 2-day … Read more
Outcome Update #2 Posted Sunday 11/29/15 at Noon The rainfall configuration and amounts lined up very well with my forecasts leading up to this event (documented further down this page). Records were set, as predicted, and 2015 will go down as the wettest year on record. Check out our real-time rainfall tally to see how … Read more
How does the first freeze compare with normal (climatology)? ❄️ The average first freeze at DFW is November 22. Therefore, this year’s freeze was right on schedule, based on the current 30-year average (1981-2010). Other Freeze Statistics for DFW: Average first freeze: November 22 Average last freeze: March 13 Earliest freeze on record: October 22, … Read more
Final Rainfall Amounts [Posted Saturday 10/31 at 1:25 pm] The NWS in Fort Worth prepared this graphic depicting storm total rainfall amounts. Using the legend, I drew the 2-inch line. Clearly, most of the area saw 2 to 4 inches, but there was an area of 4 to 7 inches in Tarrant, Dallas, Johnson, and … Read more
➡︎ Update History: Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) & Updates 2 through 5 | Update #6 | Update #7 Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙ Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record for the date (2.19″) set in 1908. ◙ Record #2 [Broken] 3.55 inches … Read more
➡︎ Update History: Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) | Update #2 | Update #3 | Update #4 | Results/Records Broken Latest Forecasts (Starting at Update #6 on Friday 10/23) Continued Here Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙ Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record … Read more
Summary & Forecast Verification [Thursday 8/20/15 8 pm] ***Today Among Our Coldest August Days on Record*** A few days ago, I predicted that our strongest cold front in 3 months would move through North Texas (below). The forecast worked out perfectly (and to the contrary of the armchair meteorologists who declared otherwise on the day … Read more
I want to kick off this piece with a discussion of Tropical Depression Bill’s intensification over Missouri, hundreds of miles inland. ➡ Click here to skip to the North Texas impacts to see how much rain fell at DFW and what the peak winds were as Bill passed across the area. At 4 p.m. CDT Friday, … Read more
This post is a carryover from the previous post that contained three days worth of forecast updates leading up to the formation of Tropical Storm Bill. In an effort to improve readability, I thought it would be best to create a new post given that T. S. Bill will soon make landfall and subsequently move … Read more
Latest Forecast ➡ A new post about Tropical Storm Bill was started to help improve readability. All previous forecast updates in the three days leading up to Bill’s formation are archived below, in the order that they were written. ➡ Final Event Recap: As predicted, peak wind gusts of 50 mph and greater, and record … Read more
May 2015 was an exhausting month for forecasters in Oklahoma and Texas. One storm system after another brought enormous rainfall and significant flooding to many areas. I will try to post some dynamics/thermodynamics analyses or a general recap of each individual storm system in a future addendum to this post. For now, I wanted to … Read more
Many of you may have been awakened by the Tornado Warning in western Dallas/eastern Tarrant Counties early Sunday morning. The tornado sirens sounded across the warned area, and even in my area near the Grapevine/Southlake border. Fortunately the tornado in Irving dissipated as it moved north-northwest toward the residential areas of Carrollton. As it turns … Read more
Read Initial Forecast #1 | Use Radar/Advisory Tools on the DFW Page Final Update [Rainfall Record Broken – Sunday 5/24] DFW Airport received 3.31 inches of rain today (Sunday, May 24, 2015), which breaks the record for the greatest amount ever recorded on this date. The previous record was 3.28″ set in 1908. Records date … Read more
Below is my partial/subjective surface analysis using 2 pm data. There is certainly a convoluted mess of fronts associated with this surface low. However, the dry line is obvious with at least one dry-line bulge southwest of the metroplex. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) in that area exceeds 4,000 J/kg. There is a θe … Read more
Update #2 [Wednesday 4/22 10:40 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch*** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the thunderstorms that developed to the northwest as predicted. These continue to move southeast. The watch is in effect until 4 am. Read my initial forecast discussion posted the day before, on Tuesday 4/21 Update#1 [Radar Update – … Read more
Special Update [Saturday 4/18 7:40 pm] Significant thunderstorm wind damage is likely in the path of this downburst throughout Tarrant County, with winds in excess of 70 mph possible. It is moving northeast through Tarrant County. Velocity Image at 7:40 pm: Fourth Forecast Update [Saturday 4/18 5:45 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 1 am*** Includes … Read more
UPDATE: Thursday 4/9 at 4 pm [Update Regarding Convective Initiation]: My map yesterday placed convective initiation along a McKinney to DFW Airport to Stephenville line. I am adjusting it west by about 20 miles to from Pilot Point to Fort Worth to Stephenville. This shift wouldn’t normally be significant (it’s within the margin of error), … Read more
Update #5 Friday 3/20 at 1:30 pm [Final Update]: A few official rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours Sister Grove Ck (Collin): 1.86 Melissa (Collin): 1.43 Prosper (Collin): 1.24 Dallas, Irving Blvd (Dallas): 0.51 Gainesville (Cooke): 1.56 Valley View (Cooke): 1.67 Denton (Denton): 0.81 Ladonia (Fannin): 2.93 Celeste (Hunt): 2.17 Alvord (Wise): 1.14 Update … Read more
Below are details of the March 4th-5th 2015 snowstorm in North Texas. You may be interested in these related pages: DFW snowfall records dating back to 1898 List of the worst snowstorms to hit DFW (top 20) 2015 snow and sleet events (2014-2015 winter) Current snow cover map (updated daily) Daily Snowfall Accum Stats for … Read more